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Predictions for 2010 Part Deux PDF Print E-mail

Perilous times results from a bad economy and a lack of jobs.  Terrorists look for targets that are symbolic, dramatic and Economic.   This strategy means that, as the United States enters a period of economic uncertainty and volatility, terrorists would find certain tactics highly damaging to our economy.  How about mall terrorist homicide bombers?  Anybody want to go shopping then?  Bus bombings?


The Economic Meltdown of 2009 continues, unabated, as major states, including New York and California, contend with massive deficits.    You must be aware of this situation because your financial well-being will affect your livelihood, your life and the lives of your loved ones.  Here are headlines about New York and California...and a few financial predictions from people on Economics.  Me?  I bought natural gas ETF's in November - expecting it to be a cold winter.

 

Schwarzenegger wants more federal money for California

SACRAMENTO, California (Reuters) - California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on Wednesday vowed to pry more dollars from the federal government, which he said took more than it gave, but left details on how to close a $19.9 billion state budget gap until later this week.

 

California has ceased wanting to court evil corporatins for business.   Most corporations are small with fewer than 100 employees.  Look it up on the census information.


Paterson Says Legislators Put State in Danger

ALBANY — In a strikingly blunt State of the State address, Gov. David A. Paterson chastised the lawmakers seated before him on Wednesday, saying they had spent the state into near-ruin and stood by as a plague of political corruption destroyed New Yorkers’ trust in their government.

 

PREDICTIONS

Rich Dad Kiyosaki's Predictions

My friend Ed suggested this site from the famed author of the Rich Dad series.  It is in line with a number of other predictions.  Gold, silver, oil, commodities.  Inflation from Obamanomics printing money like mad.    He's also very interested in Real Estate, calculating that commercial real estate is going to take a huge dive.



predictions in both political and economic worlds.  It points out that political stability could befall Thailand, Nigeria and North Korea depending on the health of their rulers.   Thailand is surging in the fast rising Asian markets so that's worth noting.   Others are:

  • For global markets, probably the main political risk would be one of the world's more troubled economies defaulting or coming close to default on its sovereign debt -- ultimately a political decision. Worries over Dubai, Ukraine and Greece have all spilled over into global markets in the last month, and all three look set to remain under economic and political pressure in the coming year, even as most other countries return to growth.
  • A global recovery in commodity prices could stoke resource nationalism, particularly in Africa and Latin America, raising the threat of expropriation from foreign investors. Opinions are divided on whether the crisis has boosted protectionism. A December pressure group report identified dozens of potentially protectionist measures introduced in recent months  but the World Trade Organisation says there has been no major breakdown.
  • -- Signs of unrest in Europe, particularly in Latvia and Greece -- the most exposed Western and emerging EU states respectively. Both could be bellwethers for the wider continent. Reports of xenophobic attacks on minorities. -- A dramatic commodity price spike, particularly in foodstuffs, could raise pressure on foreign resource projects particularly recent land deals in Africa.


Now the weaker economies are already starting to fall like dominoes, with Dubai, Greece, and Spain already in serious trouble ,and other European governments teetering as well on both sides of the continent. A European financial crisis is likely to rather quickly become a global one.

Timing the global economic cardiac arrest is not possible for us, but we have reason to believe it will come in the next 12 months. Possible catalysts (and this is pure speculation) include a domino-like chain of sovereign default and credit seizure, leading to commercial debt defaults, unemployment etc. , or mortgage rate resets, or reaccelerating unemployment. A wave of commercial real estate and/or consumer defaults is also a possibility if the employment picture fails to improve significantly very soon.









 

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